The National Interagency Fire Center’s National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook, issued August 1, 2026, covers August through November. It is worth reading precisely rather than as a general alarm, because the above-normal signal is concentrated — both in geography and in time — and knowing where it lands tells you how much runway you have.

The season is already running hot. As of July 31, more than 6 million acres had burned nationally, 165% of the previous 10-year average, across 44,004 reported wildfires, 128% of average. The National Preparedness Level rose to 5 — the top of the scale — on July 18, after two major lightning events in the northwestern U.S. produced over 300 fires in Oregon and Washington between July 14 and 16. Drought still covers nearly 48% of the country.

Where the outlook is actually above normal, and when

August. Above-normal significant fire potential across most of the northwestern U.S. — from central Utah, northwest Colorado, western Wyoming, and northwest Montana westward to the Pacific Northwest coast and northeast California. Also above normal: much of the northern Plains, northern Minnesota, the southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, south Florida, and Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

September. Potential returns to normal in much of the Southern Area, western Colorado, and southwest Wyoming. It stays above normal across northern Utah, northern Nevada, northeast California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, northern Montana, western North Dakota, northern Minnesota, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

October. Most areas return to normal. Only northern Minnesota, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands remain above normal.

November. All areas normal except northern Minnesota.

That timing is the part households in the West should take from it. If you are in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, northern Montana, northern Nevada, northern Utah, or northeast California, the elevated window is now through September — not a vague “fall.” The work below is worth doing in the next several weeks, not in October when the forecast has already relaxed and the risk of a late-season wind event still exists.

The forecast drivers support that read: below-normal precipitation is expected for much of the Northwest from August through November, with above-normal temperatures likely across the West. Drought persisted, intensified, or developed in the Northwest, Great Basin, Colorado, and northern New Mexico through July, and rapid drought onset was observed from the Dakotas into northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Why the first five feet do most of the work

Ember spread — not a wall of flame arriving from the tree line — accounts for as much as 90% of structures burned in wildland-urban interface fires. Embers travel well ahead of a fire, land in accumulated fuel next to a building, and start a small fire that ignites the structure.

That is why the home ignition zone is divided the way it is. NFPA and IBHS both split the old 0-to-30-foot zone into two, recognizing that combustible material immediately against a building threatens it through direct flame contact and radiant heat in a way that vegetation 20 feet out does not.

Zone 0 — the immediate, noncombustible zone (0 to 5 feet). This is the highest-return work per hour spent. Current guidance is to keep this band free of combustible material entirely.

Zone 1 — the intermediate zone (5 to 30 feet). Break up fuel continuity so a ground fire cannot run to the house.

Zone 2 — the extended zone (30 to 100 feet). Reduce fuel volume and ladder fuels so an approaching fire drops from the crowns to the ground.

If you only do one, do Zone 0.

The checklist, in priority order

Zone 0 (0-5 feet) — do this first

  • Remove bark mulch against the foundation. Shredded bark and rubber mulch ignite readily from embers and burn against siding. Replace with gravel, pavers, or bare soil.
  • Clear the roof and gutters. Pine needles and leaves in gutters and roof valleys are the single most reliable ember catchment on a house.
  • Move anything combustible off the walls and out from under the deck. Firewood stacks, propane tanks, recycling bins, patio cushions, brooms, door mats, stored lumber.
  • Screen vents with 1/8-inch metal mesh. Attic and crawlspace vents draw embers directly into the structure.
  • Remove or replace combustible fencing where it meets the house. A wood fence attached to siding is a wick leading straight to the wall. Swap the last several feet for metal or masonry.
  • Clear vegetation in the band entirely, including plants under windows and against the foundation. Potted plants count.
  • Check deck surfaces and the gap beneath. Sweep out accumulated needles between boards and under the deck.

Zone 1 (5-30 feet)

  • Keep grass mowed short and watered where you can.
  • Space shrubs and small trees so crowns do not touch; break up continuous beds with gravel, walkways, or bare ground.
  • Prune branches away from the roof and chimney; keep tree limbs from overhanging the structure.
  • Move firewood, trailers, and boats out of this band.
  • Relocate propane tanks and keep a cleared area around them.

Zone 2 (30-100 feet)

  • Thin dense stands and remove dead trees and heavy downed fuel.
  • Remove ladder fuels — the low branches and brush that carry fire from the ground into the canopy.
  • Keep the driveway clear and wide enough for engine access, with turnaround space. Fire crews will not commit to a structure they cannot safely reach or leave.

What to do with the rest of the window

Two things beyond the physical work are worth putting on the calendar while the outlook is elevated:

Set your own departure trigger now. Evacuation decisions made under a smoke column are worse than decisions made in August. Name the condition — a specific evacuation level for your zone, a fire within a set distance, loss of power combined with wind — and agree the household leaves at that point without another discussion.

Assemble the go-bag and stage the documents. Wildfire gives less notice than most hazards; households that had to leave with 20 minutes’ warning consistently report the same list of what they wished they had grabbed. Our household go-file guide covers what belongs in the document set.

Smoke is its own hazard even when fire is nowhere near you. If the outlook applies to a region upwind rather than to your own county, the relevant preparation is filtration and indoor air, which we cover in wildfire smoke readiness.

FAQ

Does an above-normal outlook mean my house will be threatened?

No. The outlook is a probabilistic statement about the likelihood of significant fires across a geographic area, not a prediction about any address. It is useful for timing — it tells you the window in which preparation is most worth doing — not for estimating personal risk.

Is Zone 0 work worth doing if my Zone 2 is untouched?

Yes, and it is the better order. Ember ignition of material against the structure is the dominant loss mechanism in WUI fires. A house with a clean 5-foot perimeter and untouched forest at 80 feet survives more often than the reverse.

What about mulch — is any type acceptable near the house?

Within the first five feet, the guidance is no combustible mulch at all, including rubber. Gravel, decomposed granite, pavers, or bare soil are the alternatives. Bark mulch is acceptable further out in Zone 1, kept in broken-up beds rather than continuous runs.

My region is listed as normal for October. Can I wait?

Normal potential is not zero potential, and late-season wind events have driven some of the most destructive fires on record in areas that were not forecast as elevated. The outlook tells you when the odds are worst, not when fire is possible. The Zone 0 work is a weekend and lasts the season — there is no advantage to deferring it.